Thursday, May 03, 2012

Global Warming and Sosa

Described in my favorite terms baseball:

Do you think Sammy Sosa took steroids? Yes
Do you think Steroids enhanced his performance? Yes
Do you think he was more likely to hit a home run at each plate appearance taking steroids then without? Yes

Do you think if he struck out six times in a row that would be proof he wasn’t on steroids? No
Can you prove that a specific home run, he hit in a specific inning on a specific day was directly due to steroids? No
Can you predict if he will hit a home run in his next at bat after taking steroids? No

See there are two concepts at work a general one and a specific one. Global warming like steroids is a general rule. An event is more likely to occur because of stimulators then without it. Just like the average number of home runs will increase, the average temperature will increase over time.

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