Thursday, November 15, 2012


For some reason when I ever stumble along this little movie gem on TV I can’t help but sit and watch. I think it draws a nice story about a longing for a perfect and the realization that that idealized world isn’t what you think it is. There is a scene in the movie when the towns leaders are convened in a bowling where they are safe from the changes going on around them on the outside. They are plotting strategy about how to overcoming this changing world. While I know everyone is sick of politics I think this is a good representation of the current state of the republican party which is despite a lot of chest thumping is now in its current form entering its twilight. The changing demographics of America long two particular axis will continue to erode the parties relevance each year.

1.) The largest growing “religious” population in the US is non-theists -- atheists. This population will start to have a larger and larger influence going forward. As we move from a more superstitious based culture to a more rational scientific minded culture how we think, vote and handle issues will change in a way I would forecast is not going to be favorable to the party.

2.) The diversity of the country is changing. As we become more multicultural you can no longer win elections based on appealing to one segment of the population. You will need to include people or all different backgrounds and here the party has some extreme challenges and may have to change its dogma considerably.

The party strategy then becomes one of two paths; suppress these changes or the population within these demographics from voting or fundamentally change the party platform.

My gut tells me that line is too hard, that number 1 will prevail and with that my prediction is that if the economy keeps flat or marginally improving we will never see another viable republican candidate for president.

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