Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Containment?

I have been following the fires closely and I think it is just gut wrenching. My heart goes out to those people in Southern California.

I was left baffled and doing calculations on my lunch napkin though after listening to the fire chiefs talk of containment.

I have taken several college and graduate level statistics classes and I am still unable to determine how they are arriving at the figures for fire containment in Southern California.

This fire is 5% contained or this on is 20% contained?

My theory I guess would be that a moving fire in a straight wind trajectory as in this case would always half to be + 50% contained since fires do not move backwards on a windy day and it is extremely difficult to re-burn what has already been burned.

If you envision the fire can move any direction in a 180 degrees, but if the wind is blowing it is unable to move in 360 degrees. Even if the wind suddenly changed course there is still the radius that has already burned?

What am I missing? How can it be 5% contained?

3 comments:

Rocketstar said...

I think it is a sign that God hates homosexuals and is punishing us for it. Giving us a taste of Hell.

In all seriousness, yeah, it's horrible.

Jaio said...

What a pleasure to find an atheist:-) Somebody who is not making wars in the nam of God but just living in a normal way.

*Ren* said...

I'll leave the statistics and numbers up to you. Those things just confuse me and my high IQ.

I heard on the news last night that if the fires were here, it would encompass all of Minneapolis, St Paul, and Woodbury. When I heard that my heart just sunk!

I'm not sure if it's 5% or 20% contained but I wish it would hurry up and be 100% contained.